msconduct | The other 100 days

I've heard some anxiety from the US that with only 100-ish days till the election, the Dems are worried about cranking Kamala Harris's campaign up in time, Well, I'm here to tell you, to paraphrase a former president, YES YOU CAN. In the UK, the ENTIRE campaign, BY LAW, is six weeks. And I can't tell you what a relief that is. The US election season seems to start on Day One of the new incumbent's tenure. When it was just an internal matter to the US, that didn't affect me, but now that the wrong choice of president would send the entire globe careering in a very bad direction, it's beyond exhausting and terrifying.

And in my view, a long campaign is completely pointless anyway. I don't think most voters remember much beyond what happened just before the election. I'm convinced Hillary Clinton lost because of the James Comey ridiculous "buttery males" email probe, and for no other reason. And that was on October 28. I think it's an advantage for Kamala to have a short time to campaign while everyone's invigorated by the change. Go go go!

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From:

bill_schubert

I'm with you. My thought is also that the shorter time frame favors Kamala. And I love hearing Trump bleat about how the Dems owe him money for making him run against Biden for so long.

Electing Kamala will ease tensions on the world stage some. It will be a shit show here. Nazis everywhere. But that will be mostly internal and mostly a matter of policing.

Trump will die and much of his coterie will slither back into the swamp where they were before 2016.

From:

msconduct

Of course Trump could have avoided that little problem if he'd campaigned for his own platform, rather than against someone else. But that's a bit difficult when your platform is "Please elect me so I won't go to jail".

It's hard to tell which is worse for the US Naziwise, having an incumbent they hate or one they like. They were certainly emboldened by Trump. I used to think having a black president was what pulled them out of the woodwork in the first place, but I recently saw a doco that pointed to the Koch brothers' various think tanks which pushed US politics forcibly to the right. Globally, US support is critical for opposing Russia, and it's in nobody's interests, including the US's, to have an isolationist US when the Russia-China axis is increasingly strong.

From:

bill_schubert

I grew up in North Carolina where the John Birch society was fairly mainstream. Being white and in an upwardly mobile family I was clueless about the problems with that. And, of course, the KKK was all over and routinely disparaged but I think depended on to keep the 'coloreds' down and in their place. All of this passed me by as I was a white, middle class, male. No problems for me.

A lot of the fringe Nazi/KKK/Birchers went underground in the 70's but of course never went away. So we're in a cycle where people like Trump (and his minions) validate their existence and use them to move the goal posts when needed never, of course, actually acknowledging them other than a whistle now and then.

It is the same shit show as always in the white trailer trash class. The noble poor striving for justice in a system that is slanted against them. So much easier than picking up a book or going to the abundant education available.

All we can do is push back when pushing back is an option. The roaches never die so we just need to shine the light and keep them scurrying.

From:

msconduct

It's bizarre that they and others like the QAnons and poor people in general worship him so much when he's never done a single thing to help them - in fact, the opposite. I could see them being optimistic before he was elected the first time, but here we are after four years of his rule and they got nothing. I suppose they like him ranting about the wall and so forth.

Mind, you, I've never understood why working class people in the US vote Republican. There was an interview with Vivek Ramaswamy on the BBC World Service a couple of weeks ago and the interviewer asked him how he could justify tax cuts for the wealthy. He said Americans had always been boosters of success. I have heard that poor Americans like to think that one day they might be wealthy too and so they don't mind tax cuts for the rich, but I find it hard to believe.

From:

bill_schubert

Working class people in the U.S. do not, IMHO, see that their political choices might have the potential to change their financial situation. I think they tend to vote more on social issues, usually racism one side or the other. Their understanding of economic principles do not extend beyond 'inflation, bad'. These are the people who think that the current president decides what the gas price should be today. So they want the guy in there who says he'll lower the gas price. They want the guy who says he'll fix taxes (not even being aware of the concept of regressive taxation).

Middle class people have always been told that they can become rich if they do it right so, yeah, they are worried about the estate tax (used to be under a million, is now 13 million and might, oh my god, revert to 5 million unless we DO SOMETHING NOW!). And meanwhile spend themselves down out of the middle class saddled with the credit card required to keep up.

Being on a fixed income I do have a lot of sympathy for the cost of living but understand that maintaining a low inflation rate should, over the same amount of time it took for it to go up, result in easing of food costs which will eventually result in 'rolling back prices' again. Gas will do what gas does. The U.S. is maximized its drilling capacity so that won't change much.

But it is a slog. We have personally changed our lifestyle to adjust and I'm in watching closely as we might have to do so again. We are debt free (but for the mortgage) and will remain that way but it requires some vigilance.

If Trump is elected our taxes will go up. Anyone who does not know that deserves what they get. They will self-righteously march to the facist beat of their emperor to continued and worsening poverty.

I have some nits to pick with Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders but in the long run they are doing the work to save us from ourselves.

The person to watch from what I can see is AOC. She's a powerhouse building power bit by bit. She is the future and is smart enough to know it and grab it. I'm a bit conservative to agree with a lot of what she says too but no doubt she is amassing the power and will flex one day, single cat lady that she is.

From:

msconduct

Yes, gas and food prices are the whole economy to many, and it's not unreasonable that that's thej case given that it's where it hits people the most obviously. I was formerly married to an economist so I know more about the larger economic picture than I would probably prefer. (On our first date he was moving the salt and pepper shakers around on the restaurant table to demonstrate the theory of comparative advantage.)

You have estate taxes? How SOCIALIST! We don't have those, or, very unusually, any capital gains taxes either. The case for them is obvious, but traditionally Kiwis invest principally in real estate so any government trying to introduce a capital gains tax would have a riot on their hands, as governments well know. Jacinda tentatively suggested it once, only to hastily backpedal.

I'm not so sure about food prices retreating, even with lower inflation. Food producers have seen what people will pay, and I'm not sure how readily they'll give up those higher prices. I hope you're right, however. Here, we don't have enough competition in the food area (one of the problems of a small population) but of course you're much better off in that respect.

AOC seems to have been retreating a bit towards the mainstream lately, which will only help her popular support. A friend of mine (a Kiwi) recently told me she wanted a bumper sticker that said "Childless cat lady for Kamala", so let's hope that meme will run and run.

From:

bill_schubert

I saw the notification of this response come in and knew it was you (time of day).
I did remember you were once married to an economist. I listen to a bunch of econ podcasts and am happy to have that benmy total interaction. I think I wouldn't get on with someone who actually understands some of it. I prefer to think I'm the one who understands it. Knowing full well I don't.

I'm usually too optimistic about the economy. Since I'm on a fixed income I'm hoping things revert a little. I hate having to watch what we're spending on food. I usually don't but we can hardly afford some of the meat I used to but without thinking about it.

From:

msconduct

Having brushed up against it, my opinion of economics only got lower. It starts with the assumption that people will behave rationally - wrong in many cases. I used to tell my husband that in those few words my entire field (psychology) was contained. I'm also yet to see economists accurately predict anything much at all, so what use are they? It's not called the dismal science for nothing.

I think your chances for meat at a decent price are pretty good. Trumponomics will probably be inflationary, but until then and after if reason prevails, it looks like the US is coming out of the inflationary bump caused by the pandemic.