"Potentially one of the most serious storms of the century"

[msconduct]

I'm supposed to be going to the beach today, to an island an hour away on the car ferry, for two weeks. After the record-setting torrential rain and flooding we had last week, and after a summer that's so far been wet far more often than it's been dry, I was hoping that the weather would settle to its customary February reliable sun.

What are we getting instead? A Category 3 tropical cyclone.

Am I going to a beachfront property with massive waves predicted? Where torrential rain might cause a slip in the steep bank just behind the house? Where power cuts are common anyway, let alone in a storm, and where there is tank water only which relies on an electric pump? On an island where I can't get away because the ferries can't run in high seas/strong wind?

I am not.

Instead I am springing the good news on our clients that they will be getting our services for a few more days before we decamp. Continuing to earn at least takes a little bit of the sting out of paying for a holiday home it's too late to cancel and is now sitting empty at an eye-watering nightly fee. If after the cyclone the holiday house is still standing, if *my* house is still standing, and if the island isn't an official disaster zone, we'll be going later next week. Maybe we can extend the stay if the weather then comes right, but this year, that's a very huge if.

And as well as Mah Holiday, I'm kind of scared of going through this cyclone even at home. We're likely to get as much rain again as we did last week, on ground that's still saturated. I'm not going to have flooding, but the winds are another matter. The height that protects me from flooding makes my property more vulnerable to wind. The winds forecast could handily knock my trees down and rip my roof off.

This is not how things usually go. Tropical cyclones here are far from an everyday thing. Or they were, in the before times. I miss the before times.

Comments

[msconduct]

Yes, previously they've been very few and far between. If I had to guess, I'd say those days are gone for good.

The cyclone that did the most damage previously was Cyclone Bola in 1988. I was on honeymoon in the South Island, in the one tiny little corner of the country completely unaffected, so I missed that one. Not going to be so lucky this time.

Thanks, we're as prepared as we can be, now it's just a waiting game.

[bill_schubert]

I assume by your comments that you live on the northern end near the cyclone's path?

Since I did a search for the New Zealand Cyclone it is now in my news feed along with the exercise ball I searched for a few days ago.

Having lived on the east coast for so long and watched the hurricanes I know their path pretty well and am used to the predictions and percentages. There is no land in the way and not much else to change the straight path of your cyclone. Not nearly as unpredictable. Sounds like it is going to be full of water, though.

[msconduct]

I'm honoured to be sharing space with your exercise ball! Yes, I live in Auckland - right in the path, but not as bad as the Coromandel Peninsula, where they're expecting 400mm (more than 15 inches) of water.

Forecasts are always difficult here - I'm always amazed when I go somewhere overseas and the weather does exactly what the forecast said it would. But no matter if the cyclone moves a little east or not, this is a big system and it's going to clobber us.