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The grand finale
Aug. 22nd, 2020 03:05 amOK, I’m finally going to get around to saying why New Zealand took the Covid path it did. Why did we decide, unlike most other countries, to go for eliminating the virus altogether? Was it because we didn’t want New Zealanders to die? Well, sure, partly. We’re all pretty firm on that point and we don’t regret it. But it was also partly because we didn’t really have any other choice. When they ran the models at the beginning of the outbreak, it looked like if we didn’t do anything about the virus we would have tens of thousands of cases, with approximately 10% of those needing hospital care and 10% of the hospital cases needing ICU treatment. The problem with that scenario is that New Zealand just doesn’t have that many ICU beds. And it’s as simple as that. If we didn’t want our hospitals to get overwhelmed, cutting the virus off at the knees was the only option on the table.
And it’s just as well it was, because we have been pretty damned lucky to have picked the right horse. If only we all knew it. People overseas may not be able to believe it, but we do have some people here carping and moaning about lockdowns, plus some trolling clickbaity journalists demanding we open up the country and “learn to live with the virus”. I find this astonishing. Not only is our virus risk negligible, we have had three whole months of normal life, which will be resuming soon, while the rest of the world has been struggling through an apocalypse. Quite apart from the health and economic benefits, the relief of having the fear and stress brought on by the virus lifted is almost impossible to convey. To be fair, the vast majority of us do know how lucky we are and wish the same could be true for the rest of the world.
So did we do the right thing? A lot of annoyingly stupid people on Twitter don’t think so.
It’s all very well isolating yourself from the rest of the world, but what’s the endgame? Surely you can't stay isolated for the rest of the pandemic?
Um…yes? This is the objection that baffles me the most. Why wouldn’t we?
But with these lockdowns and isolation you’re ruining your economy!
Nope. Actually, the opposite. Like everyone else’s, our economy has taken a hit, but it was cranking along at 60% in the most extreme lockdown level and 80% in Level 3, where Auckland is currently. And of course going back to normal life meant everything was up and running again except overseas tourism. A lot of people seem to assume tourism is our primary industry. It’s not. We’re a primary producer, and our exports are continuing perfectly well. In fact, there’s been increased demand for them. And while tourism has taken the worst hit by our isolating ourselves, what choice do we have? Nobody would want to come here if we were overrun by Covid anyway. Also, New Zealanders, usually inveterate overseas travellers, are taking the opportunity to see their own country without it being choked with overseas tourists. It’s fab, and it’s really helping out the tourism providers.
But when the virus returns, you’ll be sitting ducks because you have no herd immunity! You should have gone the Sweden route!
Frankly, there’s a lot of utter claptrap talked about herd immunity. You need around 60% of the population to be immune for it to work: Sweden, the country that most opened itself up to the virus, has herd immunity currently standing at 6% (not a typo). And for that, they’ve lost nearly 6,000 lives compared to our 22. What’s more, so far it looks as if immunity only lasts around three months anyway.
It’s easy for you, you’re…
…an island!
Well, we’re not an island, although considering how many maps leave NZ off altogether (something Kiwis enjoy and encourage), it’s an easy mistake to make. There’s no doubt it’s easier to control your borders if you’re an island, but it’s far from being a magic ticket. Just ask the UK, with one of the higher death rates in the world.
…isolated!
This is something we hear over and over and I just don’t get it. Yes, New Zealand is isolated. It takes us three hours to fly to the closest country and eleven hours to get to LA. But so what? it isn’t as if people have to come here by paddleboard. Five million tourists a year manage to get here.
…sparsely populated!
Yes, our population is low, but that’s misleading. Our largest city has 1.7 million people and if in the US would be their fifth largest city. We’re not all spaced out evenly. What’s more, it doesn’t really matter, because people can, after all, move around. In our original outbreak, our worst cluster came from a wedding in Bluff, population around 1,800. People came to it from all over New Zealand, one of whom was a flight attendant who happened to be a superspreader, which resulted in 98 cases and the sad death of the groom’s father. So much for a sparse population.
And then there are the truly off-the-wall theories…
New Zealand has had a big outbreak!
You can stop saying that any time now, Mr Trump. It isn’t any truer than the first time and you’re only making yourself look even more of a laughing stock. If that’s possible.
New Zealand’s authoritarian government is taking the opportunity presented by the virus to force people into quarantine camps!
Quarantine…camps? It’s a five star hotel! And if Jacinda really is planning to strip the people of their freedom in this way, it’s going to take an awfully long time, because there are way less than a hundred people in there.
People are so terrified of being ripped away from their families and forced into a camp that they don’t dare get tested!
Hmm, wonder where the 165,000 tests carried out over the last week have come from then…
New Zealand’s authoritarian government is taking the opportunity presented by the virus to delay the election!
Correct, the general election has been delayed by a month. However, what the conspiracy theorists are missing is that a) unlike the US the date of our elections isn’t set by a Constitution, it’s selected by the Prime Minister within a six-month time frame at the end of the term, and b) it wasn’t Jacinda’s idea: the other parties begged her to do it. Her party is currently polling so high that they think the further away the election is the better.
And that’s it! I think I’m done with my NZ coronavirus update at last. Joy and rejoicing all around!
And it’s just as well it was, because we have been pretty damned lucky to have picked the right horse. If only we all knew it. People overseas may not be able to believe it, but we do have some people here carping and moaning about lockdowns, plus some trolling clickbaity journalists demanding we open up the country and “learn to live with the virus”. I find this astonishing. Not only is our virus risk negligible, we have had three whole months of normal life, which will be resuming soon, while the rest of the world has been struggling through an apocalypse. Quite apart from the health and economic benefits, the relief of having the fear and stress brought on by the virus lifted is almost impossible to convey. To be fair, the vast majority of us do know how lucky we are and wish the same could be true for the rest of the world.
So did we do the right thing? A lot of annoyingly stupid people on Twitter don’t think so.
It’s all very well isolating yourself from the rest of the world, but what’s the endgame? Surely you can't stay isolated for the rest of the pandemic?
Um…yes? This is the objection that baffles me the most. Why wouldn’t we?
But with these lockdowns and isolation you’re ruining your economy!
Nope. Actually, the opposite. Like everyone else’s, our economy has taken a hit, but it was cranking along at 60% in the most extreme lockdown level and 80% in Level 3, where Auckland is currently. And of course going back to normal life meant everything was up and running again except overseas tourism. A lot of people seem to assume tourism is our primary industry. It’s not. We’re a primary producer, and our exports are continuing perfectly well. In fact, there’s been increased demand for them. And while tourism has taken the worst hit by our isolating ourselves, what choice do we have? Nobody would want to come here if we were overrun by Covid anyway. Also, New Zealanders, usually inveterate overseas travellers, are taking the opportunity to see their own country without it being choked with overseas tourists. It’s fab, and it’s really helping out the tourism providers.
But when the virus returns, you’ll be sitting ducks because you have no herd immunity! You should have gone the Sweden route!
Frankly, there’s a lot of utter claptrap talked about herd immunity. You need around 60% of the population to be immune for it to work: Sweden, the country that most opened itself up to the virus, has herd immunity currently standing at 6% (not a typo). And for that, they’ve lost nearly 6,000 lives compared to our 22. What’s more, so far it looks as if immunity only lasts around three months anyway.
It’s easy for you, you’re…
…an island!
Well, we’re not an island, although considering how many maps leave NZ off altogether (something Kiwis enjoy and encourage), it’s an easy mistake to make. There’s no doubt it’s easier to control your borders if you’re an island, but it’s far from being a magic ticket. Just ask the UK, with one of the higher death rates in the world.
…isolated!
This is something we hear over and over and I just don’t get it. Yes, New Zealand is isolated. It takes us three hours to fly to the closest country and eleven hours to get to LA. But so what? it isn’t as if people have to come here by paddleboard. Five million tourists a year manage to get here.
…sparsely populated!
Yes, our population is low, but that’s misleading. Our largest city has 1.7 million people and if in the US would be their fifth largest city. We’re not all spaced out evenly. What’s more, it doesn’t really matter, because people can, after all, move around. In our original outbreak, our worst cluster came from a wedding in Bluff, population around 1,800. People came to it from all over New Zealand, one of whom was a flight attendant who happened to be a superspreader, which resulted in 98 cases and the sad death of the groom’s father. So much for a sparse population.
And then there are the truly off-the-wall theories…
New Zealand has had a big outbreak!
You can stop saying that any time now, Mr Trump. It isn’t any truer than the first time and you’re only making yourself look even more of a laughing stock. If that’s possible.
New Zealand’s authoritarian government is taking the opportunity presented by the virus to force people into quarantine camps!
Quarantine…camps? It’s a five star hotel! And if Jacinda really is planning to strip the people of their freedom in this way, it’s going to take an awfully long time, because there are way less than a hundred people in there.
People are so terrified of being ripped away from their families and forced into a camp that they don’t dare get tested!
Hmm, wonder where the 165,000 tests carried out over the last week have come from then…
New Zealand’s authoritarian government is taking the opportunity presented by the virus to delay the election!
Correct, the general election has been delayed by a month. However, what the conspiracy theorists are missing is that a) unlike the US the date of our elections isn’t set by a Constitution, it’s selected by the Prime Minister within a six-month time frame at the end of the term, and b) it wasn’t Jacinda’s idea: the other parties begged her to do it. Her party is currently polling so high that they think the further away the election is the better.
And that’s it! I think I’m done with my NZ coronavirus update at last. Joy and rejoicing all around!
